Evidence-weighted forecasting.
Clear probabilities. Transparent updates. One page to see the signal.
Clear probabilities. Transparent updates. One page to see the signal.
Military operations, economy/energy, elite cohesion, domestic sentiment, external/diplomatic, and symbolic context — each mapped to Bayes factors.
Weekly manual updates; emergency inflection notes when major triggers fire.
Transparent math, dated entries, and explicit penalties to avoid double-counting. No narratives — only odds.